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This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.
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Confidence Data Summary Update: Feb. 27th, 2012
- In our last report commentary we stated that "the current reading (confidence drop) indicates a potential for limited market weakness". After that report was released the Dow was at 12,949. The market closed today 33 points higher at 12,982. Following the last report the market did move slightly lower before seeing the move to current levels.
Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 8.6% higher from 46.3% to 54.9%. The current reading (confidence move higher) indicates a potential for limited market strength.
- Short term look for strength in the Consumer Non-cyclical sector (IYK), Services sector (RTH), Africa regional (EZA), Middle East regional (^DWMFBS), and TIPS bond (TIP) markets.
- Short term look for weakness in the Russell 2000 (^RUT)(new 52 week high and overbought market reading) market.
We've added the following table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).
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| DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
Report Release Dates/Results |
|
|
Market Confidence Guide |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| SHORT TERM |
|
| Bullish |
63.4% |
48.1% |
52.5% |
56.9% |
46.3% |
54.9% |
Neutral
|
+8.6% |
--
|
25.0% |
63.4% |
|
16.7% |
63.4% |
0.0% - 22.5% |
|
22.5% - 57.5% |
|
57.5% and greater |
| Bearish |
12.7% |
16.3% |
13.9% |
15.3% |
16.8% |
12.2% |
--
|
-4.6% |
--
|
12.7% |
43.4% |
12.7% |
56.9% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Neutral |
23.9% |
35.6% |
33.7% |
27.8% |
36.8% |
32.9% |
--
|
-3.9% |
--
|
17.8% |
36.8% |
17.8% |
43.2% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LONG TERM |
|
| Optimistic |
76.1% |
66.7% |
71.7% |
72.6% |
73.7% |
75.6% |
Overbought
|
+1.9% |
Yes
|
46.2% |
76.1% |
46.2% |
76.1% |
0.0% - 50.0% |
50.0% - 72.3% |
72.3% and greater |
| Pessimistic |
23.9% |
33.3% |
28.3% |
27.4% |
26.3% |
24.4% |
--
|
-1.9% |
--
|
23.9% |
53.8% |
23.9% |
53.8% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX |
|
| IYY | 4.6% | 5.9% | 9.5% | 8.6% | 4.4% | 8.0% | Neutral |
+3.6% |
--
|
2.3% |
14.1% |
2.3% |
16.7% |
0.0% - 4.1% |
4.1% - 14.9% |
14.9% and greater |
iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX |
|
| IVV | 16.9% | 14.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 12.0% | Neutral |
-1.2% |
--
|
3.5% |
22.9% |
1.6% |
22.9% |
0.0% - 4.2% |
4.2% - 20.2% |
20.2% and greater |
| NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| NASDAQ (^IXIC) | 21.7% | 19.0% | 22.2% | 23.6% | 16.3% | 15.9% | Neutral |
-0.5% |
--
|
6.9% |
31.5% |
|
3.9% |
31.5% |
0.0% - 7.4% |
|
7.4% - 28.1% |
|
28.1% and greater |
| PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) | 20.0% | 14.9% | 18.9% | 14.3% | 18.7% | 22.7% | Overbought |
+4.0% |
Yes
|
7.1% |
23.2% |
6.2% |
23.2% |
0.0% - 8.4% |
8.4% - 21.1% |
21.1% and greater |
| SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Russell 2000 (^RUT) | 15.4% | 17.8% | 12.6% | 12.9% | 23.1% | 10.7% | Neutral |
-12.4% |
--
|
4.3% |
23.1% |
|
1.6% |
23.1% |
0.0% - 4.3% |
|
4.3% - 20.4% |
|
20.4% and greater |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Basic Materials | 10.1% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 5.6% | 13.0% | 2.4% | Oversold |
-10.6% |
No
|
1.4% |
13.0% |
|
1.4% |
25.3% |
0.0% - 4.3% |
|
4.3% - 22.3% |
|
22.3% and greater |
| Cons, Cyclical | 5.8% | 3.0% | 5.1% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 7.3% | Neutral |
+1.9% |
--
|
1.6% |
11.5% |
0.0% |
11.5% |
0.0% - 1.4% |
1.4% - 10.1% |
10.1% and greater |
| Cons, Non Cycl | 2.9% | 7.0% | 4.0% | 4.2% | 5.4% | 2.4% | Oversold |
-3.0% |
No
|
2.9% |
15.9% |
2.6% |
15.9% |
0.0% - 4.2% |
4.2% - 14.2% |
14.2% and greater |
| Energy | 21.7% | 16.0% | 11.1% | 19.4% | 29.3% | 37.8% | Overbought |
+8.5% |
Yes
|
7.7% |
29.3% |
7.0% |
39.8% |
0.0% - 11.1% |
11.1% - 35.7% |
35.7% and greater |
| Financial | 7.2% | 11.0% | 12.1% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 9.8% | Neutral |
+2.1% |
--
|
2.5% |
12.3% |
1.7% |
12.3% |
0.0% - 3.0% |
3.0% - 11.0% |
11.0% and greater |
| Healthcare | 14.5% | 9.0% | 6.1% | 5.6% | 8.7% | 3.7% | Neutral |
-5.0% |
--
|
1.3% |
14.5% |
1.3% |
15.9% |
0.0% - 3.2% |
3.2% - 14.1% |
14.1% and greater |
| Services | 0.0% | 1.0% | 2.0% | 2.8% | 4.3% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-4.3% |
No
|
0.0% |
7.1% |
0.0% |
7.1% |
0.0% - 0.9% |
0.9% - 6.2% |
6.2% and greater |
| Transportation | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 2.4% | Neutral |
+1.4% |
--
|
0.0% |
4.1% |
0.0% |
6.9% |
0.0% - 0.9% |
0.9% - 6.0% |
6.0% and greater |
| Utilities | 2.9% | 6.0% | 8.1% | 4.2% | 1.1% | 1.2% | Oversold |
+0.1% |
No
|
1.1% |
18.1% |
0.0% |
18.1% |
0.0% - 2.3% |
2.3% - 15.8% |
15.8% and greater |
| EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Internet (HHH) | 1.5% | 1.0% | 1.1% | 1.4% | 5.5% | 4.0% | Neutral |
-1.5% |
--
| 0.0% |
6.5% |
|
0.0% |
8.6% |
0.0% - 1.1% |
|
1.1% - 7.6% |
|
7.6% and greater |
| Equity REIT (IYR) | 3.1% | 3.0% | 7.4% | 5.7% | 4.4% | 1.3% | Oversold |
-3.1% |
Yes
| 2.1% |
12.9% |
1.0% |
12.9% |
0.0% - 2.5% |
2.5% - 11.4% |
11.4% and greater |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| China/Asia (regional) | 18.6% | 16.7% | 24.5% | 20.5% | 18.3% | 18.3% | Neutral |
+0.0% |
--
|
13.9% |
35.4% |
|
13.9% |
35.4% |
0.0% - 16.6% |
|
16.6% - 32.8% |
|
32.8% and greater |
| China/Asia (EPP) | 12.3% | 16.8% | 10.5% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 4.0% | Neutral |
-5.9% |
--
|
2.1% |
16.8% |
2.1% |
16.8% |
0.0% - 3.9% |
3.9% - 15.0% |
15.0% and greater |
| Japan (regional) | 4.3% | 4.9% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 3.2% | 3.7% | Neutral |
+0.4% |
--
|
0.0% |
5.3% |
0.0% |
11.9% |
0.0% - 1.5% |
1.5% - 10.4% |
10.4% and greater |
| Japan (EWJ) | 1.5% | 2.0% | 1.1% | 2.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-1.1% |
Yes
|
0.0% |
2.9% |
0.0% |
10.5% |
0.0% - 1.3% |
1.3% - 9.2% |
9.2% and greater |
| Europe (regional) | 1.4% | 2.9% | 1.0% | 4.1% | 3.2% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-3.2% |
Yes
|
0.0% |
4.1% |
0.0% |
4.1% |
0.0% - 0.5% |
0.5% - 3.6% |
3.6% and greater |
| Europe (FEZ) | 0.0% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.3% | Neutral |
+0.2% |
--
|
0.0% |
4.0% |
0.0% |
4.0% |
0.0% - 0.5% |
0.5% - 3.5% |
3.5% and greater |
| Africa | 1.4% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Oversold |
0.0% |
No
|
0.0% |
4.2% |
0.0% |
4.2% |
0.0% - 0.5% |
0.5% - 3.7% |
3.7% and greater |
| Australia | 7.1% | 9.8% | 6.1% | 11.0% | 7.5% | 11.0% | Neutral |
+3.4% |
--
|
2.8% |
13.2% |
2.8% |
14.1% |
0.0% - 4.2% |
4.2% - 12.7% |
12.7% and greater |
| Canada | 8.6% | 13.7% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 12.2% | Neutral |
+2.5% |
--
|
8.2% |
20.5% |
6.0% |
20.5% |
0.0% - 7.8% |
7.8% - 18.7% |
18.7% and greater |
| India | 1.4% | 5.9% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 9.7% | 6.1% | Neutral |
-3.6% |
--
|
1.4% |
16.5% |
1.4% |
17.5% |
0.0% - 3.4% |
3.4% - 15.5% |
15.5% and greater |
| Middle East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Oversold |
0.0% |
No
|
0.0% |
3.8% |
0.0% |
4.6% |
0.0% - 0.6% |
0.6% - 4.0% |
4.0% and greater |
| Russia | 0.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.4% | 1.1% | 1.2% | Neutral |
+0.1% |
--
|
0.0% |
3.8% |
0.0% |
6.0% |
0.0% - 0.7% |
0.7% - 5.2% |
5.2% and greater |
| South America | 18.6% | 7.8% | 14.3% | 17.8% | 9.7% | 14.6% | Neutral |
+5.0% |
--
|
6.4% |
22.2% |
6.4% |
24.4% |
0.0% - 8.7% |
8.7% - 22.2% |
22.2% and greater |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| TIPS Bond (TIP) | 1.5% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 2.2% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-2.2% |
No
|
0.0% |
10.5% |
|
0.0% |
10.5% |
0.0% - 1.3% |
|
1.3% - 9.2% |
|
9.2% and greater |
| Treasury |
14.1% |
21.4% |
7.3% |
15.5% |
12.2% |
11.5% |
Neutral
|
-0.7% |
--
|
7.3% |
30.6% |
4.7% |
30.9% |
0.0% - 7.9% |
7.9% - 27.6% |
27.6% and greater |
| Corporate |
33.3% |
43.4% |
34.7% |
34.8% |
43.8% |
33.8% |
Neutral
|
-10.1% |
--
|
23.9% |
45.9% |
17.9% |
45.9% |
0.0% - 21.4% |
21.4% - 42.4% |
42.4% and greater |
| Municipal |
18.8% |
22.2% |
19.1% |
8.7% |
19.3% |
14.3% |
Neutral
|
-5.0% |
--
|
8.7% |
26.2% |
3.6% |
26.2% |
0.0% - 6.4% |
6.4% - 23.4% |
23.4% and greater |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
Amex Gold
Bugs Index (^HUI) | 13.0% | 16.0% | 17.2% | 20.8% | 7.6% | 17.1% | Neutral |
+9.5% |
--
|
6.9% |
36.2% |
|
6.9% |
40.0% |
0.0% - 11.1% |
|
11.1% - 35.9% |
|
35.9% and greater |
PowerShares DB
Precious Metals (DBP) | 12.3% | 9.9% | 20.0% | 17.1% | 9.9% | 21.3% | Neutral |
+11.4% |
--
|
8.6% |
31.0% |
8.6% |
44.4% |
0.0% - 13.1% |
13.1% - 40.0% |
40.0% and greater |
| COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
1/20 |
1/27 |
2/03 |
2/10 |
2/17 |
2/24 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| CRB Index | 10.8% | 9.9% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 6.6% | 14.7% | Neutral |
+8.1% |
--
|
5.8% |
20.8% |
|
5.8% |
22.1% |
0.0% - 7.8% |
|
7.8% - 20.1% |
|
20.1% and greater |
(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released in March 5th, 2012.
WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
Copyright © WhisperNumber.com | Market Sentiment LLC, 2012, david@whispernumber.com
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