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This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.
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- In our last report commentary we stated that the "current reading indicates a potential for market strength". After that report was released the Dow was at 13,123. The market closed today 87 points lower at 13,036. Following last report the market saw limited weakness (against our expectation) through today's close.
Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 13.1% lower from 41.3% to 28.2%. We stated in our last report that our prior reading "may be the start of a hi/lo confidence trend indicative of investor uncertainty". This week's reading leans towards confirming that outlook. If it is an indication of investor uncertainty, the market should see limited price movement (either direction) moving forward. Next week's reading will confirm or refute this. For now, the current reading indicates a potential for market weakness.
- Short term look for strength in the Basic Materials sector (IYM), Service sector (RTH), Transportation sector (DJT)(matching 52 week low and oversold market reading), Internet sector (HHH), Japan regional (EWJ), Russia regional (RSX), TIPS bond (TIP), and Treasury bond (IEI)(new 52 week low and oversold market reading) markets.
- There are no readings indicating short term weakness in the market.
The following is an 'extreme confidence readings' summary table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).
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| DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
Report Release Dates/Results |
|
|
Market Confidence Guide |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| SHORT TERM |
|
| Bullish |
27.9% |
32.3% |
40.9% |
30.7% |
41.3% |
28.2% |
Neutral
|
-13.1% |
--
|
18.9% |
58.9% |
|
18.9% |
63.4% |
0.0% - 24.4% |
|
24.4% - 57.8% |
|
57.8% and greater |
| Bearish |
47.5% |
30.3% |
31.8% |
22.7% |
38.1% |
26.9% |
--
|
-11.2% |
--
|
12.2% |
53.3% |
12.2% |
56.9% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Neutral |
24.6% |
37.4% |
27.3% |
46.6% |
20.6% |
44.9% |
--
|
+24.2% |
--
|
21.7% |
46.2% |
17.8% |
46.2% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LONG TERM |
|
| Optimistic |
51.7% |
60.8% |
61.5% |
69.4% |
55.6% |
64.9% |
Neutral
|
+9.4% |
--
|
51.7% |
82.2% |
46.2% |
82.2% |
0.0% - 50.7% |
50.7% - 77.7% |
77.7% and greater |
| Pessimistic |
48.3% |
39.2% |
38.5% |
30.6% |
44.4% |
35.1% |
--
|
-9.4% |
--
|
17.8% |
48.3% |
17.8% |
53.8% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX |
|
| IYY | 10.5% | 13.3% | 3.3% | 10.6% | 6.6% | 4.3% | Neutral |
-2.3% |
--
|
1.8% |
13.4% |
1.8% |
14.1% |
0.0% - 3.3% |
3.3% - 12.5% |
12.5% and greater |
iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX |
|
| IVV | 12.3% | 14.4% | 16.4% | 11.8% | 14.8% | 20.0% | Neutral |
+5.2% |
--
|
6.7% |
20.3% |
1.6% |
22.9% |
0.0% - 4.2% |
4.2% - 20.2% |
20.2% and greater |
| NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| NASDAQ (^IXIC) | 8.2% | 18.1% | 19.7% | 24.7% | 15.9% | 21.6% | Neutral |
+5.7% |
--
|
7.4% |
25.5% |
|
6.9% |
31.5% |
0.0% - 10.0% |
|
10.0% - 28.4% |
|
28.4% and greater |
| PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) | 17.5% | 16.7% | 18.0% | 18.8% | 16.4% | 10.0% | Neutral |
-6.4% |
--
|
8.0% |
24.2% |
7.1% |
24.2% |
0.0% - 9.3% |
9.3% - 22.1% |
22.1% and greater |
| SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Russell 2000 (^RUT) | 5.3% | 10.0% | 6.6% | 9.4% | 11.5% | 7.1% | Neutral |
-4.3% |
--
|
4.8% |
23.1% |
|
1.6% |
23.1% |
0.0% - 4.3% |
|
4.3% - 20.4% |
|
20.4% and greater |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Basic Materials | 1.6% | 6.4% | 6.1% | 9.4% | 0.0% | 2.7% | Neutral |
+2.7% |
--
|
0.0% |
13.0% |
|
0.0% |
13.0% |
0.0% - 1.6% |
|
1.6% - 11.4% |
|
11.4% and greater |
| Cons, Cyclical | 4.9% | 1.1% | 6.1% | 3.5% | 3.2% | 9.5% | Neutral |
+6.3% |
--
|
1.1% |
10.1% |
0.0% |
11.5% |
0.0% - 1.4% |
1.4% - 10.1% |
10.1% and greater |
| Cons, Non Cycl | 23.0% | 16.0% | 15.2% | 12.9% | 14.3% | 12.2% | Neutral |
-2.1% |
--
|
2.4% |
23.0% |
2.4% |
23.0% |
0.0% - 5.0% |
5.0% - 20.4% |
20.4% and greater |
| Energy | 21.3% | 13.8% | 18.2% | 15.3% | 15.9% | 10.8% | Neutral |
-5.1% |
--
|
5.8% |
37.8% |
5.8% |
37.8% |
0.0% - 9.8% |
9.8% - 33.8% |
33.8% and greater |
| Financial | 4.9% | 4.3% | 9.1% | 5.9% | 4.8% | 2.7% | Oversold |
-2.1% |
Yes
|
1.3% |
18.6% |
1.3% |
18.6% |
0.0% - 3.5% |
3.5% - 16.5% |
16.5% and greater |
| Healthcare | 11.5% | 21.3% | 7.6% | 4.7% | 9.5% | 13.5% | Neutral |
+4.0% |
--
|
1.4% |
24.1% |
1.3% |
24.1% |
0.0% - 4.2% |
4.2% - 21.2% |
21.2% and greater |
| Services | 0.0% | 2.1% | 1.5% | 4.7% | 0.0% | 2.7% | Neutral |
+2.7% |
--
|
0.0% |
7.0% |
0.0% |
7.1% |
0.0% - 0.9% |
0.9% - 6.2% |
6.2% and greater |
| Transportation | 3.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.2% | 4.8% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-4.8% |
No
|
0.0% |
5.3% |
0.0% |
5.3% |
0.0% - 0.7% |
0.7% - 4.6% |
4.6% and greater |
| Utilities | 6.6% | 7.4% | 6.1% | 7.1% | 4.8% | 4.1% | Neutral |
-0.7% |
--
|
0.0% |
15.0% |
0.0% |
18.1% |
0.0% - 2.3% |
2.3% - 15.8% |
15.8% and greater |
| EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Internet (HHH) | 1.8% | 3.3% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 4.3% | Neutral |
+4.3% |
--
| 0.0% |
10.0% |
|
0.0% |
10.0% |
0.0% - 1.2% |
|
1.2% - 8.8% |
|
8.8% and greater |
| Equity REIT (IYR) | 10.5% | 12.2% | 13.1% | 15.3% | 8.2% | 11.4% | Neutral |
+3.2% |
--
| 0.0% |
17.7% |
0.0% |
17.7% |
0.0% - 2.2% |
2.2% - 15.5% |
15.5% and greater |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| China/Asia (regional) | 15.5% | 12.9% | 10.8% | 14.1% | 9.8% | 14.9% | Neutral |
+5.0% |
--
|
8.5% |
28.1% |
|
8.5% |
35.4% |
0.0% - 11.8% |
|
11.8% - 32.1% |
|
32.1% and greater |
| China/Asia (EPP) | 7.0% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 4.9% | 4.3% | Neutral |
-0.6% |
--
|
3.1% |
17.5% |
2.1% |
17.5% |
0.0% - 4.0% |
4.0% - 15.6% |
15.6% and greater |
| Japan (regional) | 1.7% | 0.0% | 3.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.1% | Neutral |
+4.1% |
--
|
0.0% |
4.8% |
0.0% |
7.0% |
0.0% - 0.9% |
0.9% - 6.1% |
6.1% and greater |
| Japan (EWJ) | 1.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.9% | Neutral |
+2.9% |
--
|
0.0% |
4.6% |
0.0% |
4.6% |
0.0% - 0.6% |
0.6% - 4.0% |
4.0% and greater |
| Europe (regional) | 3.4% | 2.2% | 3.1% | 5.9% | 1.6% | 1.4% | Neutral |
-0.3% |
--
|
0.0% |
6.8% |
0.0% |
6.8% |
0.0% - 0.8% |
0.8% - 5.9% |
5.9% and greater |
| Europe (FEZ) | 0.0% | 1.1% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 4.9% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-4.9% |
No
|
0.0% |
4.1% |
0.0% |
4.1% |
0.0% - 0.5% |
0.5% - 3.6% |
3.6% and greater |
| Africa | 0.0% | 5.4% | 4.6% | 1.2% | 4.9% | 4.1% | Neutral |
-0.9% |
--
|
0.0% |
8.3% |
0.0% |
8.3% |
0.0% - 1.0% |
1.0% - 7.3% |
7.3% and greater |
| Australia | 6.9% | 8.6% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 8.2% | 2.7% | Oversold |
-5.5% |
No
|
1.8% |
12.3% |
1.8% |
13.2% |
0.0% - 3.2% |
3.2% - 11.7% |
11.7% and greater |
| Canada | 13.8% | 12.9% | 15.4% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.5% | Neutral |
-0.4% |
--
|
6.3% |
19.4% |
6.3% |
20.5% |
0.0% - 8.1% |
8.1% - 18.8% |
18.8% and greater |
| India | 6.9% | 5.4% | 7.7% | 3.5% | 8.2% | 9.5% | Neutral |
+1.3% |
--
|
1.9% |
13.6% |
1.4% |
16.5% |
0.0% - 3.3% |
3.3% - 14.6% |
14.6% and greater |
| Middle East | 1.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Oversold |
0.0% |
No
|
0.0% |
1.9% |
0.0% |
3.8% |
0.0% - 0.5% |
0.5% - 3.4% |
3.4% and greater |
| Russia | 0.0% | 2.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.3% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-3.3% |
No
|
0.0% |
6.3% |
0.0% |
6.3% |
0.0% - 0.8% |
0.8% - 5.6% |
5.6% and greater |
| South America | 10.3% | 7.5% | 16.9% | 15.3% | 16.4% | 10.8% | Neutral |
-5.6% |
--
|
6.9% |
23.2% |
6.4% |
23.2% |
0.0% - 8.5% |
8.5% - 21.1% |
21.1% and greater |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| TIPS Bond (TIP) | 5.3% | 2.2% | 1.6% | 2.4% | 0.0% | 2.9% | Neutral |
+2.9% |
--
|
0.0% |
10.9% |
|
0.0% |
10.9% |
0.0% - 1.4% |
|
1.4% - 9.5% |
|
9.5% and greater |
| Treasury |
22.4% |
12.1% |
11.5% |
18.3% |
17.2% |
4.2% |
Oversold
|
-13.1% |
Yes
|
7.7% |
27.8% |
7.3% |
30.9% |
0.0% - 10.2% |
10.2% - 28.0% |
28.0% and greater |
| Corporate |
27.6% |
44.6% |
33.3% |
33.8% |
23.7% |
36.6% |
Neutral
|
+12.9% |
--
|
21.2% |
44.6% |
21.2% |
45.9% |
0.0% - 24.2% |
24.2% - 42.8% |
42.8% and greater |
| Municipal |
5.2% |
14.4% |
15.0% |
13.8% |
12.5% |
11.4% |
Neutral
|
-1.1% |
--
|
5.2% |
20.5% |
5.2% |
26.2% |
0.0% - 7.8% |
7.8% - 23.6% |
23.6% and greater |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
Amex Gold
Bugs Index (^HUI) | 14.8% | 9.6% | 10.6% | 10.6% | 27.0% | 20.3% | Neutral |
-6.7% |
--
|
4.5% |
28.3% |
|
4.5% |
40.0% |
0.0% - 8.9% |
|
8.9% - 35.6% |
|
35.6% and greater |
PowerShares DB
Precious Metals (DBP) | 17.5% | 6.7% | 9.8% | 14.1% | 24.6% | 17.1% | Neutral |
-7.4% |
--
|
6.7% |
27.6% |
6.7% |
44.4% |
0.0% - 11.4% |
11.4% - 39.7% |
39.7% and greater |
| COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
7/27 |
8/03 |
8/10 |
8/17 |
8/24 |
8/31 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| CRB Index | 10.5% | 16.7% | 24.6% | 8.2% | 8.2% | 15.7% | Neutral |
+7.5% |
--
|
1.8% |
23.0% |
|
1.8% |
23.0% |
0.0% - 4.4% |
|
4.4% - 20.3% |
|
20.3% and greater |
(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released on September 10th 2012.
WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
Copyright © WhisperNumber.com | Market Sentiment LLC, 2012, david@whispernumber.com
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