MARKET CONFIDENCE REPORT: SEPTEMBER 4TH, 2012
This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.

  • In our last report commentary we stated that the "current reading indicates a potential for market strength". After that report was released the Dow was at 13,123. The market closed today 87 points lower at 13,036. Following last report the market saw limited weakness (against our expectation) through today's close.

    Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 13.1% lower from 41.3% to 28.2%. We stated in our last report that our prior reading "may be the start of a hi/lo confidence trend indicative of investor uncertainty". This week's reading leans towards confirming that outlook. If it is an indication of investor uncertainty, the market should see limited price movement (either direction) moving forward. Next week's reading will confirm or refute this. For now, the current reading indicates a potential for market weakness.

  • Short term look for strength in the Basic Materials sector (IYM), Service sector (RTH), Transportation sector (DJT)(matching 52 week low and oversold market reading), Internet sector (HHH), Japan regional (EWJ), Russia regional (RSX), TIPS bond (TIP), and Treasury bond (IEI)(new 52 week low and oversold market reading) markets.

  • There are no readings indicating short term weakness in the market.


The following is an 'extreme confidence readings' summary table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).



  DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE
Report Release Dates/Results Market Confidence Guide
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
SHORT TERM  
  Bullish 27.9% 32.3% 40.9% 30.7% 41.3% 28.2% Neutral -13.1% -- 18.9% 58.9% 18.9% 63.4% 0.0% - 24.4% 24.4% - 57.8% 57.8% and greater
  Bearish 47.5% 30.3% 31.8% 22.7% 38.1% 26.9% -- -11.2% -- 12.2% 53.3% 12.2% 56.9% -- -- --
  Neutral 24.6% 37.4% 27.3% 46.6% 20.6% 44.9% -- +24.2% -- 21.7% 46.2% 17.8% 46.2% -- -- --

LONG TERM  
  Optimistic 51.7% 60.8% 61.5% 69.4% 55.6% 64.9% Neutral +9.4% -- 51.7% 82.2% 46.2% 82.2% 0.0% - 50.7% 50.7% - 77.7% 77.7% and greater
  Pessimistic 48.3% 39.2% 38.5% 30.6% 44.4% 35.1% -- -9.4% -- 17.8% 48.3% 17.8% 53.8% -- -- --

iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX  
 IYY  10.5% 13.3% 3.3% 10.6% 6.6% 4.3%Neutral -2.3% -- 1.8% 13.4% 1.8% 14.1% 0.0% - 3.3% 3.3% - 12.5% 12.5% and greater

iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX  
 IVV  12.3% 14.4% 16.4% 11.8% 14.8% 20.0%Neutral +5.2% -- 6.7% 20.3% 1.6% 22.9% 0.0% - 4.2% 4.2% - 20.2% 20.2% and greater

  NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 NASDAQ (^IXIC)  8.2% 18.1% 19.7% 24.7% 15.9% 21.6%Neutral +5.7% -- 7.4% 25.5% 6.9% 31.5% 0.0% - 10.0% 10.0% - 28.4% 28.4% and greater
 PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)  17.5% 16.7% 18.0% 18.8% 16.4% 10.0%Neutral -6.4% -- 8.0% 24.2% 7.1% 24.2% 0.0% - 9.3% 9.3% - 22.1% 22.1% and greater

  SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Russell 2000 (^RUT)  5.3% 10.0% 6.6% 9.4% 11.5% 7.1%Neutral -4.3% -- 4.8% 23.1% 1.6% 23.1% 0.0% - 4.3% 4.3% - 20.4% 20.4% and greater

  SECTOR CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Basic Materials 1.6% 6.4% 6.1% 9.4% 0.0% 2.7%Neutral +2.7% -- 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% - 1.6% 1.6% - 11.4% 11.4% and greater
 Cons, Cyclical 4.9% 1.1% 6.1% 3.5% 3.2% 9.5%Neutral +6.3% -- 1.1% 10.1% 0.0% 11.5% 0.0% - 1.4% 1.4% - 10.1% 10.1% and greater
 Cons, Non Cycl 23.0% 16.0% 15.2% 12.9% 14.3% 12.2%Neutral -2.1% -- 2.4% 23.0% 2.4% 23.0% 0.0% - 5.0% 5.0% - 20.4% 20.4% and greater
 Energy 21.3% 13.8% 18.2% 15.3% 15.9% 10.8%Neutral -5.1% -- 5.8% 37.8% 5.8% 37.8% 0.0% - 9.8% 9.8% - 33.8% 33.8% and greater
 Financial 4.9% 4.3% 9.1% 5.9% 4.8% 2.7%Oversold -2.1% Yes 1.3% 18.6% 1.3% 18.6% 0.0% - 3.5% 3.5% - 16.5% 16.5% and greater
 Healthcare 11.5% 21.3% 7.6% 4.7% 9.5% 13.5%Neutral +4.0% -- 1.4% 24.1% 1.3% 24.1% 0.0% - 4.2% 4.2% - 21.2% 21.2% and greater
 Services 0.0% 2.1% 1.5% 4.7% 0.0% 2.7%Neutral +2.7% -- 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% 7.1% 0.0% - 0.9% 0.9% - 6.2% 6.2% and greater
 Transportation 3.3% 0.0% 0.0% 1.2% 4.8% 0.0%Oversold -4.8% No 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% - 0.7% 0.7% - 4.6% 4.6% and greater
 Utilities 6.6% 7.4% 6.1% 7.1% 4.8% 4.1%Neutral -0.7% -- 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% 18.1% 0.0% - 2.3% 2.3% - 15.8% 15.8% and greater

  EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Internet (HHH) 1.8% 3.3% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0% 4.3%Neutral +4.3% -- 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% - 8.8% 8.8% and greater
 Equity REIT (IYR) 10.5% 12.2% 13.1% 15.3% 8.2% 11.4%Neutral +3.2% -- 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% 17.7% 0.0% - 2.2% 2.2% - 15.5% 15.5% and greater

  GLOBAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 China/Asia (regional) 15.5% 12.9% 10.8% 14.1% 9.8% 14.9%Neutral +5.0% -- 8.5% 28.1% 8.5% 35.4% 0.0% - 11.8% 11.8% - 32.1% 32.1% and greater
 China/Asia (EPP)  7.0% 3.3% 3.3% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3%Neutral -0.6% -- 3.1% 17.5% 2.1% 17.5% 0.0% - 4.0% 4.0% - 15.6% 15.6% and greater
 Japan (regional) 1.7% 0.0% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 4.1%Neutral +4.1% -- 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% - 0.9% 0.9% - 6.1% 6.1% and greater
 Japan (EWJ)  1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.9%Neutral +2.9% -- 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% - 0.6% 0.6% - 4.0% 4.0% and greater
 Europe (regional) 3.4% 2.2% 3.1% 5.9% 1.6% 1.4%Neutral -0.3% -- 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.9% 5.9% and greater
 Europe (FEZ)  0.0% 1.1% 1.6% 2.4% 4.9% 0.0%Oversold -4.9% No 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5% - 3.6% 3.6% and greater
 Africa 0.0% 5.4% 4.6% 1.2% 4.9% 4.1%Neutral -0.9% -- 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% - 1.0% 1.0% - 7.3% 7.3% and greater
 Australia 6.9% 8.6% 9.2% 7.1% 8.2% 2.7%Oversold -5.5% No 1.8% 12.3% 1.8% 13.2% 0.0% - 3.2% 3.2% - 11.7% 11.7% and greater
 Canada 13.8% 12.9% 15.4% 10.6% 9.8% 9.5%Neutral -0.4% -- 6.3% 19.4% 6.3% 20.5% 0.0% - 8.1% 8.1% - 18.8% 18.8% and greater
 India 6.9% 5.4% 7.7% 3.5% 8.2% 9.5%Neutral +1.3% -- 1.9% 13.6% 1.4% 16.5% 0.0% - 3.3% 3.3% - 14.6% 14.6% and greater
 Middle East 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 3.8% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5% - 3.4% 3.4% and greater
 Russia 0.0% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 3.3% 0.0%Oversold -3.3% No 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% 6.3% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.6% 5.6% and greater
 South America 10.3% 7.5% 16.9% 15.3% 16.4% 10.8%Neutral -5.6% -- 6.9% 23.2% 6.4% 23.2% 0.0% - 8.5% 8.5% - 21.1% 21.1% and greater

  BONDS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 TIPS Bond (TIP)  5.3% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4% 0.0% 2.9%Neutral +2.9% -- 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% - 1.4% 1.4% - 9.5% 9.5% and greater
 Treasury 22.4% 12.1% 11.5% 18.3% 17.2% 4.2% Oversold -13.1% Yes 7.7% 27.8% 7.3% 30.9% 0.0% - 10.2% 10.2% - 28.0% 28.0% and greater
 Corporate 27.6% 44.6% 33.3% 33.8% 23.7% 36.6% Neutral +12.9% -- 21.2% 44.6% 21.2% 45.9% 0.0% - 24.2% 24.2% - 42.8% 42.8% and greater
 Municipal 5.2% 14.4% 15.0% 13.8% 12.5% 11.4% Neutral -1.1% -- 5.2% 20.5% 5.2% 26.2% 0.0% - 7.8% 7.8% - 23.6% 23.6% and greater

  METALS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Amex Gold
 Bugs Index (^HUI)
 
 14.8% 9.6% 10.6% 10.6% 27.0% 20.3%Neutral -6.7% -- 4.5% 28.3% 4.5% 40.0% 0.0% - 8.9% 8.9% - 35.6% 35.6% and greater
 PowerShares DB
 Precious Metals (DBP)
 
 17.5% 6.7% 9.8% 14.1% 24.6% 17.1%Neutral -7.4% -- 6.7% 27.6% 6.7% 44.4% 0.0% - 11.4% 11.4% - 39.7% 39.7% and greater

  COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE
   7/27 8/03 8/10 8/17 8/24 8/31 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 CRB Index  10.5% 16.7% 24.6% 8.2% 8.2% 15.7%Neutral +7.5% -- 1.8% 23.0% 1.8% 23.0% 0.0% - 4.4% 4.4% - 20.3% 20.3% and greater



(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released on September 10th 2012.

WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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