MARKET CONFIDENCE REPORT: DECEMBER 31ST, 2012
This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.

  • In our last report commentary we stated that the "current reading indicates a potential for limited market strength at best, or neutrality at worst". After that report was released the Dow was at 13,139. The market closed today 35 points lower at 13,104. After last report the market moved slightly before recovering through today's trading (neutrality as expected).

    Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 4.3% lower from 41.7% to 37.3%. This continues the hi-lo reading trend indicating investor uncertainty, with an overall underlying trend higher (indicating strength). The current reading indicates a potential for market neutrality at best, or limited market weakness at worst.

  • Short term look for strength in the Transportation sector (IYT), Middle East regional (GULF), Russia regional (RSX), and Corporate bond (GHYG) markets.

  • Short term look for weakness in the Financial sector (XLF or inverse SEF), and Australia regional (EWA) markets.
The following is an 'extreme confidence readings' summary table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).



  DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE
Report Release Dates/Results Market Confidence Guide
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
SHORT TERM  
  Bullish 41.7% 34.2% 47.9% 36.4% 41.7% 37.3% Neutral -4.3% -- 23.7% 61.0% 18.9% 63.4% 0.0% - 24.4% 24.4% - 57.8% 57.8% and greater
  Bearish 37.5% 32.9% 25.0% 22.7% 28.3% 36.0% -- +7.7% -- 11.5% 47.5% 11.5% 53.3% -- -- --
  Neutral 20.8% 32.9% 27.1% 40.9% 30.0% 26.7% -- -3.3% -- 20.6% 46.6% 20.6% 46.6% -- -- --

LONG TERM  
  Optimistic 58.7% 58.3% 61.7% 67.7% 65.0% 63.5% Neutral -1.5% -- 51.7% 72.9% 51.7% 82.2% 0.0% - 55.5% 55.5% - 78.4% 78.4% and greater
  Pessimistic 41.3% 41.7% 38.3% 32.3% 35.0% 36.5% -- +1.5% -- 27.1% 48.3% 17.8% 48.3% -- -- --

iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX  
 IYY  15.9% 7.6% 8.9% 6.6% 8.8% 5.7%Neutral -3.1% -- 1.8% 15.9% 1.8% 15.9% 0.0% - 3.5% 3.5% - 14.1% 14.1% and greater

iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX  
 IVV  9.1% 18.2% 22.2% 18.0% 14.0% 10.0%Neutral -4.0% -- 8.9% 22.2% 6.7% 22.2% 0.0% - 8.6% 8.6% - 20.3% 20.3% and greater

  NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 NASDAQ (^IXIC)  14.6% 11.4% 14.6% 21.9% 10.0% 17.6%Neutral +7.6% -- 4.7% 24.7% 4.7% 25.5% 0.0% - 7.3% 7.3% - 22.9% 22.9% and greater
 PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)  9.1% 6.1% 13.3% 11.5% 14.0% 8.6%Neutral -5.5% -- 4.3% 20.0% 4.3% 24.2% 0.0% - 6.8% 6.8% - 21.7% 21.7% and greater

  SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Russell 2000 (^RUT)  9.1% 4.5% 11.1% 9.8% 7.0% 8.6%Neutral +1.6% -- 4.0% 15.4% 4.0% 23.1% 0.0% - 6.4% 6.4% - 20.7% 20.7% and greater

  SECTOR CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Basic Materials 10.4% 10.0% 6.2% 7.8% 5.0% 5.4%Neutral +0.4% -- 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% - 1.6% 1.6% - 11.4% 11.4% and greater
 Cons, Cyclical 4.2% 4.3% 6.2% 7.8% 3.3% 6.8%Neutral +3.4% -- 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% 12.3% 0.0% - 1.5% 1.5% - 10.7% 10.7% and greater
 Cons, Non Cycl 10.4% 11.4% 8.3% 7.8% 8.3% 10.8%Neutral +2.5% -- 5.3% 23.0% 2.4% 23.0% 0.0% - 5.0% 5.0% - 20.4% 20.4% and greater
 Energy 6.2% 8.6% 10.4% 15.6% 16.7% 10.8%Neutral -5.9% -- 6.2% 21.3% 5.8% 37.8% 0.0% - 9.8% 9.8% - 33.8% 33.8% and greater
 Financial 2.1% 8.6% 10.4% 4.7% 20.0% 8.1%Neutral -11.9% -- 2.1% 20.0% 1.3% 20.0% 0.0% - 3.6% 3.6% - 17.7% 17.7% and greater
 Healthcare 31.2% 15.7% 14.6% 9.4% 18.3% 9.5%Neutral -8.9% -- 2.4% 31.2% 1.4% 31.2% 0.0% - 5.2% 5.2% - 27.5% 27.5% and greater
 Services 0.0% 4.3% 2.1% 1.6% 1.7% 2.7%Neutral +1.0% -- 0.0% 6.4% 0.0% 7.0% 0.0% - 0.9% 0.9% - 6.1% 6.1% and greater
 Transportation 4.2% 0.0% 2.1% 1.6% 0.0% 1.4%Neutral +1.4% -- 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% - 0.7% 0.7% - 4.6% 4.6% and greater
 Utilities 2.1% 7.1% 4.2% 9.4% 10.0% 6.8%Neutral -3.2% -- 1.8% 11.7% 0.0% 15.0% 0.0% - 1.9% 1.9% - 13.1% 13.1% and greater

  EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Internet (FDN) 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 4.9% 3.5% 2.9%Neutral -0.7% -- 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% - 8.8% 8.8% and greater
 Equity REIT (IYR) 11.4% 10.6% 13.3% 13.1% 7.0% 11.4%Neutral +4.4% -- 5.4% 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% - 2.5% 2.5% - 17.5% 17.5% and greater

  GLOBAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 China/Asia (regional) 30.6% 20.3% 14.9% 16.1% 25.4% 26.4%Neutral +1.0% -- 9.8% 30.6% 8.5% 30.6% 0.0% - 11.2% 11.2% - 27.8% 27.8% and greater
 China/Asia (EPP)  9.1% 7.6% 2.2% 8.2% 12.3% 15.7%Overbought +3.4% Yes 0.0% 15.7% 0.0% 17.5% 0.0% - 2.2% 2.2% - 15.4% 15.4% and greater
 Japan (regional) 2.0% 5.8% 2.1% 0.0% 1.7% 4.2%Neutral +2.5% -- 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% 5.8% 0.0% - 0.7% 0.7% - 5.1% 5.1% and greater
 Japan (EWJ)  0.0% 3.0% 2.2% 1.6% 3.5% 4.3%Overbought +0.8% Yes 0.0% 4.3% 0.0% 4.6% 0.0% - 0.6% 0.6% - 4.0% 4.0% and greater
 Europe (regional) 0.0% 1.4% 2.1% 4.8% 8.5% 5.6%Neutral -2.9% -- 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0.0% - 1.1% 1.1% - 7.4% 7.4% and greater
 Europe (FEZ)  0.0% 1.5% 4.4% 1.6% 0.0% 2.9%Neutral +2.9% -- 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% 5.4% 0.0% - 0.7% 0.7% - 4.8% 4.8% and greater
 Africa 0.0% 0.0% 4.3% 1.6% 3.4% 1.4%Neutral -2.0% -- 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% 8.3% 0.0% - 1.0% 1.0% - 7.3% 7.3% and greater
 Australia 2.0% 7.2% 12.8% 11.3% 10.2% 9.7%Neutral -0.4% -- 2.0% 12.8% 1.8% 12.8% 0.0% - 3.2% 3.2% - 11.4% 11.4% and greater
 Canada 18.4% 13.0% 8.5% 8.1% 6.8% 13.9%Neutral +7.1% -- 4.0% 18.4% 4.0% 19.4% 0.0% - 5.9% 5.9% - 17.4% 17.4% and greater
 India 6.1% 7.2% 10.6% 11.3% 3.4% 6.9%Neutral +3.6% -- 3.4% 15.3% 1.4% 15.3% 0.0% - 3.2% 3.2% - 13.5% 13.5% and greater
 Middle East 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.7% 0.0%Oversold -1.7% No 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.0% - 0.5% 0.5% - 3.5% 3.5% and greater
 Russia 4.1% 1.4% 0.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.8%Neutral +1.1% -- 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% 7.3% 0.0% - 0.9% 0.9% - 6.4% 6.4% and greater
 South America 8.2% 8.7% 12.8% 6.5% 11.9% 4.2%Oversold -7.7% No 4.0% 18.6% 4.0% 23.2% 0.0% - 6.4% 6.4% - 20.8% 20.8% and greater

  BONDS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 TIPS Bond (TIP)  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.5% 1.4%Neutral -2.1% -- 0.0% 5.3% 0.0% 10.9% 0.0% - 1.4% 1.4% - 9.5% 9.5% and greater
 Treasury 17.4% 14.9% 9.1% 8.3% 10.3% 7.0% Oversold -3.3% No 4.2% 22.4% 4.2% 27.8% 0.0% - 7.1% 7.1% - 24.8% 24.8% and greater
 Corporate 36.4% 31.8% 24.4% 28.3% 30.4% 17.4% Oversold -13.0% No 17.4% 44.6% 17.4% 44.6% 0.0% - 20.8% 20.8% - 41.2% 41.2% and greater
 Municipal 24.4% 22.7% 11.1% 20.0% 16.1% 17.1% Neutral +1.1% -- 5.2% 24.4% 5.2% 24.4% 0.0% - 7.6% 7.6% - 22.0% 22.0% and greater

  METALS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Amex Gold
 Bugs Index (^HUI)
 
 14.6% 18.6% 20.8% 12.5% 6.7% 20.3%Neutral +13.6% -- 4.5% 30.0% 4.5% 30.0% 0.0% - 7.7% 7.7% - 26.8% 26.8% and greater
 PowerShares DB
 Precious Metals (DBP)
 
 25.0% 21.2% 15.6% 14.8% 10.5% 21.4%Neutral +10.9% -- 6.7% 32.0% 6.7% 32.0% 0.0% - 9.8% 9.8% - 28.8% 28.8% and greater

  COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE
   11/16 11/30 12/07 12/14 12/21 12/28 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 CRB Index  11.4% 13.6% 6.7% 9.8% 15.8% 7.1%Neutral -8.6% -- 4.0% 24.6% 1.8% 24.6% 0.0% - 4.6% 4.6% - 21.7% 21.7% and greater



(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released on January 7th 2013.

WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

Copyright © WhisperNumber.com | Market Sentiment LLC, 2012, david@whispernumber.com