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This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.
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- In our last report commentary we stated that "current reading indicates the potential for short term market neutrality/strength (and we'll maintain our longer term market weakness outlook)". After that report was released the Dow was at 18,096. The market closed today 203 points higher at 18,299. Not a very strong move (just over 1%), but obviously the expected strength versus neutrality.
Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 5.1% lower from 48.0% to 42.9%. Late last week when the survey ran the market was just off the current highs seen today, so it's a bit of a surprise that confidence fell. The current reading indicates the potential for short term market neutrality/weakness (and we'll maintain our longer term market weakness outlook).
- Short term look for strength in the Consumer Cyclical sector (IYC), Services sector (RTH), Australia regional (EWA), Middle East regional (GULF), South America regional (EWZ), TIPS Bond (TIP), and Municipal Bond (TFI) markets.
- Short term look for weakness in the Consumer Non-cyclical sector (IYK) markets.
The following is an 'extreme confidence readings' summary table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).
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| DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
Report Release Dates/Results |
|
|
Market Confidence Guide |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| SHORT TERM |
|
| Bullish |
39.4% |
46.3% |
46.7% |
28.0% |
48.0% |
42.9% |
Neutral
|
-5.1% |
--
|
28.0% |
64.1% |
|
25.9% |
64.6% |
0.0% - 30.8% |
|
30.8% - 59.8% |
|
59.8% and greater |
| Bearish |
19.7% |
22.4% |
24.4% |
36.0% |
32.0% |
20.0% |
--
|
-12.0% |
--
|
8.3% |
36.0% |
8.3% |
36.0% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Neutral |
40.9% |
31.3% |
28.9% |
36.0% |
20.0% |
37.1% |
--
|
+17.1% |
--
|
19.2% |
42.3% |
19.2% |
48.1% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
LONG TERM |
|
| Optimistic |
69.7% |
67.7% |
70.2% |
71.4% |
68.0% |
66.2% |
Neutral
|
-1.8% |
--
|
62.1% |
85.7% |
55.6% |
85.7% |
0.0% - 59.3% |
59.3% - 81.9% |
81.9% and greater |
| Pessimistic |
30.3% |
32.3% |
29.8% |
28.6% |
32.0% |
33.8% |
--
|
+1.8% |
--
|
14.3% |
37.9% |
14.3% |
44.4% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX |
|
| IYY | 14.8% | 12.5% | 2.2% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 10.6% | Neutral |
-0.5% |
--
|
2.2% |
19.0% |
2.2% |
19.0% |
0.0% - 4.3% |
4.3% - 16.9% |
16.9% and greater |
iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX |
|
| IVV | 11.5% | 10.9% | 17.4% | 6.5% | 20.0% | 16.7% | Neutral |
-3.3% |
--
|
6.5% |
27.3% |
6.5% |
30.5% |
0.0% - 9.5% |
9.5% - 27.5% |
27.5% and greater |
| NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| NASDAQ (QQEW) | 23.1% | 12.3% | 10.6% | 16.7% | 18.4% | 19.1% | Neutral |
+0.8% |
--
|
10.6% |
27.8% |
|
10.6% |
29.5% |
0.0% - 13.0% |
|
13.0% - 27.1% |
|
27.1% and greater |
| PowerShares QQQ (QQQ) | 19.7% | 9.4% | 23.9% | 10.9% | 11.1% | 15.2% | Neutral |
+4.0% |
--
|
9.4% |
24.2% |
7.0% |
25.8% |
0.0% - 9.4% |
9.4% - 23.5% |
23.5% and greater |
| SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Russell 2000 (IWM) | 11.5% | 21.9% | 6.5% | 17.4% | 6.7% | 16.7% | Neutral |
+10.0% |
--
|
6.5% |
24.0% |
|
5.6% |
28.1% |
0.0% - 8.4% |
|
8.4% - 25.3% |
|
25.3% and greater |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Basic Materials | 0.0% | 6.2% | 0.0% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 5.9% | Neutral |
+3.8% |
--
|
0.0% |
12.5% |
|
0.0% |
13.0% |
0.0% - 1.6% |
|
1.6% - 11.4% |
|
11.4% and greater |
| Cons, Cyclical | 1.5% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 0.0% | Oversold |
-2.0% |
Yes
|
1.5% |
13.3% |
0.0% |
13.3% |
0.0% - 1.7% |
1.7% - 11.7% |
11.7% and greater |
| Cons, Non Cycl | 7.7% | 9.2% | 2.1% | 10.4% | 16.3% | 4.4% | Neutral |
-11.9% |
--
|
1.3% |
16.3% |
1.3% |
16.3% |
0.0% - 3.2% |
3.2% - 14.4% |
14.4% and greater |
| Energy | 15.4% | 23.1% | 21.3% | 22.9% | 20.4% | 23.5% | Neutral |
+3.1% |
--
|
8.2% |
26.5% |
6.3% |
41.9% |
0.0% - 10.8% |
10.8% - 37.4% |
37.4% and greater |
| Financial | 4.6% | 12.3% | 2.1% | 10.4% | 4.1% | 10.3% | Neutral |
+6.2% |
--
|
0.0% |
12.3% |
0.0% |
12.3% |
0.0% - 1.5% |
1.5% - 10.8% |
10.8% and greater |
| Healthcare | 33.8% | 16.9% | 31.9% | 14.6% | 22.4% | 23.5% | Neutral |
+1.1% |
--
|
11.7% |
45.2% |
10.7% |
45.2% |
0.0% - 15.0% |
15.0% - 40.9% |
40.9% and greater |
| Services | 4.6% | 1.5% | 2.1% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 2.9% | Neutral |
+2.9% |
--
|
0.0% |
10.0% |
0.0% |
10.0% |
0.0% - 1.2% |
1.2% - 8.8% |
8.8% and greater |
| Transportation | 3.1% | 3.1% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 2.0% | 1.5% | Oversold |
-0.6% |
Yes
|
1.6% |
11.9% |
0.0% |
11.9% |
0.0% - 1.5% |
1.5% - 10.4% |
10.4% and greater |
| Utilities | 1.5% | 3.1% | 8.5% | 0.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | Neutral |
-1.1% |
--
|
0.0% |
8.5% |
0.0% |
12.9% |
0.0% - 1.6% |
1.6% - 11.2% |
11.2% and greater |
| EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| Internet (FDN) | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 1.5% | Neutral |
-0.7% |
--
| 0.0% |
7.7% |
|
0.0% |
11.1% |
0.0% - 1.4% |
|
1.4% - 9.7% |
|
9.7% and greater |
| Equity REIT (IYR) | 8.2% | 7.8% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 4.4% | 6.1% | Neutral |
+1.6% |
--
| 1.8% |
19.5% |
1.8% |
19.5% |
0.0% - 4.0% |
4.0% - 17.3% |
17.3% and greater |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| China/Asia (regional) | 18.8% | 14.1% | 17.4% | 15.2% | 10.6% | 18.2% | Neutral |
+7.5% |
--
|
3.4% |
21.8% |
|
3.4% |
26.1% |
0.0% - 6.2% |
|
6.2% - 23.2% |
|
23.2% and greater |
| China/Asia (EPP) | 9.8% | 10.9% | 8.7% | 8.7% | 4.4% | 6.1% | Neutral |
+1.6% |
--
|
0.0% |
12.2% |
0.0% |
12.2% |
0.0% - 1.5% |
1.5% - 10.7% |
10.7% and greater |
| Japan (regional) | 3.1% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 1.5% | Neutral |
-2.7% |
--
|
0.0% |
8.7% |
0.0% |
9.5% |
0.0% - 1.2% |
1.2% - 8.3% |
8.3% and greater |
| Japan (EWJ) | 3.3% | 1.6% | 6.5% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 3.0% | Neutral |
+0.8% |
--
|
0.0% |
6.9% |
0.0% |
9.8% |
0.0% - 1.2% |
1.2% - 8.6% |
8.6% and greater |
| Europe (regional) | 18.8% | 25.0% | 13.0% | 26.1% | 21.3% | 16.7% | Neutral |
-4.6% |
--
|
1.6% |
26.1% |
1.4% |
26.1% |
0.0% - 4.5% |
4.5% - 23.0% |
23.0% and greater |
| Europe (FEZ) | 13.1% | 17.2% | 4.3% | 10.9% | 15.6% | 7.6% | Neutral |
-8.0% |
--
|
0.0% |
18.6% |
0.0% |
18.6% |
0.0% - 2.3% |
2.3% - 16.3% |
16.3% and greater |
| Africa | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.3% | 2.2% | 2.1% | 4.5% | Neutral |
+2.4% |
--
|
0.0% |
4.3% |
0.0% |
7.2% |
0.0% - 0.9% |
0.9% - 6.3% |
6.3% and greater |
| Australia | 1.6% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 8.7% | 0.0% | 3.0% | Neutral |
+3.0% |
--
|
0.0% |
12.3% |
0.0% |
13.8% |
0.0% - 1.7% |
1.7% - 12.1% |
12.1% and greater |
| Canada | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 2.2% | 4.3% | 4.5% | Neutral |
+0.3% |
--
|
0.0% |
7.6% |
0.0% |
15.0% |
0.0% - 1.9% |
1.9% - 13.1% |
13.1% and greater |
| India | 14.1% | 9.4% | 17.4% | 6.5% | 10.6% | 13.6% | Neutral |
+3.0% |
--
|
5.2% |
30.0% |
3.2% |
30.0% |
0.0% - 6.6% |
6.6% - 26.7% |
26.7% and greater |
| Middle East | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | Oversold |
0.0% |
No
|
0.0% |
3.3% |
0.0% |
3.3% |
0.0% - 0.4% |
0.4% - 2.9% |
2.9% and greater |
| Russia | 4.7% | 9.4% | 4.3% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.0% | Neutral |
-1.2% |
--
|
0.0% |
9.4% |
0.0% |
15.4% |
0.0% - 1.9% |
1.9% - 13.5% |
13.5% and greater |
| South America | 3.1% | 4.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5% | Oversold |
+1.5% |
No
|
0.0% |
5.4% |
0.0% |
13.0% |
0.0% - 1.6% |
1.6% - 11.4% |
11.4% and greater |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| TIPS Bond (TIP) | 1.6% | 0.0% | 6.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.0% | Neutral |
+3.0% |
--
|
0.0% |
6.5% |
|
0.0% |
9.6% |
0.0% - 1.2% |
|
1.2% - 8.4% |
|
8.4% and greater |
| Treasury (IEI) |
23.3% |
14.8% |
28.9% |
16.3% |
9.1% |
10.9% |
Neutral
|
+1.8% |
--
|
9.1% |
35.4% |
4.7% |
35.4% |
0.0% - 8.5% |
8.5% - 31.5% |
31.5% and greater |
| Corporate (GHYG) |
30.0% |
26.7% |
37.8% |
14.0% |
20.5% |
24.2% |
Neutral
|
+3.7% |
--
|
11.7% |
46.2% |
11.7% |
46.2% |
0.0% - 16.0% |
16.0% - 41.8% |
41.8% and greater |
| Municipal (TFI) |
31.1% |
20.0% |
27.3% |
16.3% |
9.1% |
14.5% |
Neutral
|
+5.4% |
--
|
9.1% |
41.5% |
9.1% |
41.5% |
0.0% - 13.1% |
13.1% - 37.5% |
37.5% and greater |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) | 4.6% | 9.2% | 6.4% | 8.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | Neutral |
-2.3% |
--
|
1.6% |
25.0% |
|
1.6% |
25.0% |
0.0% - 4.6% |
|
4.6% - 22.1% |
|
22.1% and greater |
PowerShares DB
Precious Metals (DBP) | 3.3% | 4.7% | 8.7% | 13.0% | 15.6% | 9.1% | Neutral |
-6.5% |
--
|
0.0% |
24.5% |
0.0% |
24.5% |
0.0% - 3.1% |
3.1% - 21.5% |
21.5% and greater |
| COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE |
| |
4/10 |
4/17 |
4/24 |
5/01 |
5/08 |
5/15 |
Confidence |
%
Change |
Supporting
Trend |
|
26 week
Lo Hi |
|
52 week
Lo Hi |
|
Oversold (+) |
|
Neutral |
|
Overbought (-) |
|
| CRB Index (GCC) | 3.3% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.5% | Neutral |
-2.1% |
--
|
0.0% |
9.7% |
|
0.0% |
15.4% |
0.0% - 1.9% |
|
1.9% - 13.5% |
|
13.5% and greater |
(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released on May 25th, 2015.
WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.
Copyright © WhisperNumber.com | Market Sentiment LLC, 2015, david@whispernumber.com
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