MARKET CONFIDENCE REPORT: FEBRUARY 26TH, 2018
This is Contrarian data from the largest and most unique database of Individual Investors available. It is important data that investors should be aware of and has emerged as an accurate contrarian indicator based on data from individual investors. The data tends to lead the market by one to ten trading days before indicating market tops or bottoms.

  • In our last report commentary we stated that the "current reading indicates the potential for market strength". After that report was released the Dow was at 24,540. The market closed today 1169 points higher at 25,709. Market strength as expected.

    Since the last survey the investor confidence reading moved 8.8% higher from 50.0% to 58.8%. Not surprising considering the recent consistent market strength. The current reading indicates the potential for (continued) market strength (and the continuation of expected longer term market strength).

  • Once again, we asked which cryptocurrency do you think will provide the best investment return over the next three months. Here are the results:

    Currency9/229/29 10/6 10/13 10/20 10/27 11/3 11/10 11/17 12/1 12/4 12/15 1/5 1/12 1/19 1/26 2/2 2/9 2/23
    Bitcoin67%69%72%72% 68% 81% 78% 59% 53% 63% 65% 50% 41% 25% 33% 21% 38% 33% 42%
    Ethereum22%25%18%14% 25% 19% 6% 35% 33% 31% 25% 31% 35% 42% 13% 48% 31% 28% 25%
    Ripple0%0%5%14% 3.5% 0% 5% 0% 7% 0% 5% 0% 17% 17% 33% 26% 8% 22% 25%
    Litecoin11%6%5%0% 3.5% 0% 11% 6% 7% 6% 5% 19% 7% 17% 21% 5% 23% 17% 8%

  • Short term look for strength in the iShares DJ US Index (IYY), iShares S&P 500 Index (SPY), Consumer Cyclical sector (IYC), Consumer Non-Cyclical sector (IYK), Financial sector (XLF), Healthcare sector (IYH), Service sector (RTH), Transportation sector (IYT), Utilities sector (XLU), Equity REIT ETF (IYR), Australia regional (EWA), India regional (PIN), South America regional (EWZ), TIPS bond (TIP), and PowerShares DB Precious Metals ETF (DBP) markets.

  • Short term look for weakness in the Internet ETF (FDN), Russia regional (RSX), Treasury bond (IEI) and CRB Index (GCC) markets.
The following is an 'extreme confidence readings' summary table to help clients better visualize and utilize the confidence data found in each report. This will be updated with each report release and will be modified as needed. The blue highlight indicates a new reading position (if no blue highlighted rows then no new positions added).



  DOW JONES, S&P 500 MARKET CONFIDENCE
Report Release Dates/Results Market Confidence Guide
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
SHORT TERM  
  Bullish 80.0% 51.9% 81.0% 38.1% 50.0% 58.8% Neutral +8.8% -- 37.0% 81.0% 28.0% 81.0% 0.0% - 34.6% 34.6% - 74.3% 74.3% and greater
  Bearish 0.0% 14.8% 0.0% 14.3% 10.0% 5.9% -- -4.1% -- 0.0% 29.6% 0.0% 33.3% -- -- --
  Neutral 20.0% 33.3% 19.0% 47.6% 40.0% 35.3% -- -4.7% -- 5.6% 47.6% 5.6% 48.1% -- -- --

LONG TERM  
  Optimistic 92.0% 76.9% 95.2% 90.0% 85.0% 86.7% Neutral +1.7% -- 74.1% 95.2% 66.7% 95.2% 0.0% - 70.2% 70.2% - 91.7% 91.7% and greater
  Pessimistic 8.0% 23.1% 4.8% 10.0% 15.0% 13.3% -- -1.7% -- 4.8% 25.9% 4.8% 33.3% -- -- --

iSHARES DOW JONES U.S. INDEX  
 IYY, DIA  16.7% 18.2% 19.0% 22.2% 21.1% 0.0%Oversold -21.1% Yes 5.9% 27.3% 4.2% 27.3% 0.0% - 7.1% 7.1% - 24.4% 24.4% and greater

iSHARES S&P 500 INDEX  
 IVV, SPY  25.0% 18.2% 33.3% 5.6% 10.5% 18.8%Neutral +8.2% -- 5.6% 33.3% 5.6% 33.3% 0.0% - 9.0% 9.0% - 29.9% 29.9% and greater


  NASDAQ, TECH SECTOR MARKET CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 NASDAQ (QQEW)  28.0% 15.4% 14.3% 30.0% 30.0% 18.8%Neutral -11.3% -- 14.3% 65.0% 7.7% 65.0% 0.0% - 14.9% 14.9% - 57.8% 57.8% and greater
 PowerShares QQQ (QQQ)  20.8% 4.5% 0.0% 22.2% 15.8% 37.5%Overbought +21.7% No 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% - 4.2% 4.2% - 29.2% 29.2% and greater

  SMALL CAP MARKET (RUSSELL 2000) CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Russell 2000 (IWM)  20.8% 9.1% 19.0% 16.7% 5.3% 6.2%Neutral +1.0% -- 3.1% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% - 4.2% 4.2% - 29.2% 29.2% and greater

  SECTOR CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Basic Materials 8.0% 11.5% 4.8% 10.0% 10.0% 12.5%Overbought +2.5% No 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% 13.9% 0.0% - 1.7% 1.7% - 12.2% 12.2% and greater
 Cons, Cyclical 0.0% 7.7% 9.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 12.9% 0.0% - 1.6% 1.6% - 11.3% 11.3% and greater
 Cons, Non Cycl 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2%Neutral +6.2% -- 0.0% 8.0% 0.0% 12.1% 0.0% - 1.5% 1.5% - 10.6% 10.6% and greater
 Energy 12.0% 11.5% 19.0% 15.0% 20.0% 6.2%Neutral -13.8% -- 3.8% 27.8% 0.0% 27.8% 0.0% - 3.5% 3.5% - 24.3% 24.3% and greater
 Financial 36.0% 26.9% 28.6% 15.0% 0.0% 31.2%Neutral +31.2% -- 0.0% 44.4% 0.0% 44.4% 0.0% - 5.6% 5.6% - 38.9% 38.9% and greater
 Healthcare 4.0% 7.7% 9.5% 10.0% 15.0% 0.0%Oversold -15.0% No 0.0% 27.3% 0.0% 42.1% 0.0% - 5.3% 5.3% - 36.8% 36.8% and greater
 Services 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0%Oversold -5.0% No 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.8% 5.8% and greater
 Transportation 4.0% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 6.2%Neutral +1.2% -- 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% 9.7% 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% - 8.5% 8.5% and greater
 Utilities 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0%Oversold -10.0% No 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% 17.6% 0.0% - 2.2% 2.2% - 15.4% 15.4% and greater

  EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 Internet (FDN) 4.2% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.3% 12.5%Overbought +7.2% Yes 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% 12.5% 0.0% - 1.6% 1.6% - 10.9% 10.9% and greater
 Equity REIT (IYR) 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 13.6% 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% - 2.2% 2.2% - 15.2% 15.2% and greater

  GLOBAL MARKET CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 China/Asia (regional) 12.0% 20.0% 19.0% 17.6% 21.1% 13.3%Neutral -7.7% -- 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% 30.3% 0.0% - 3.8% 3.8% - 26.5% 26.5% and greater
 China/Asia (EPP)  8.3% 0.0% 9.5% 5.6% 5.3% 0.0%Oversold -5.3% Yes 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 16.7% 0.0% - 2.1% 2.1% - 14.6% 14.6% and greater
 Japan (regional) 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.9% 15.8% 6.7%Neutral -9.1% -- 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% - 2.0% 2.0% - 13.8% 13.8% and greater
 Japan (EWJ)  0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 5.6% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 9.5% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% - 8.8% 8.8% and greater
 Europe (regional) 8.0% 32.0% 0.0% 5.9% 5.3% 20.0%Neutral +14.7% -- 0.0% 32.0% 0.0% 32.0% 0.0% - 4.0% 4.0% - 28.0% 28.0% and greater
 Europe (FEZ)  0.0% 9.1% 4.8% 0.0% 5.3% 6.2%Neutral +1.0% -- 0.0% 9.4% 0.0% 20.0% 0.0% - 2.5% 2.5% - 17.5% 17.5% and greater
 Africa 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% 6.1% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.3% 5.3% and greater
 Australia 0.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0%Oversold -5.3% No 0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% - 1.2% 1.2% - 8.8% 8.8% and greater
 Canada 0.0% 4.0% 4.8% 5.9% 5.3% 6.7%Neutral +1.4% -- 0.0% 5.9% 0.0% 10.7% 0.0% - 1.3% 1.3% - 9.4% 9.4% and greater
 India 16.0% 8.0% 4.8% 23.5% 5.3% 0.0%Oversold -5.3% Yes 0.0% 23.5% 0.0% 32.1% 0.0% - 4.0% 4.0% - 28.1% 28.1% and greater
 Middle East 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.8% 5.8% and greater
 Russia 4.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.7%Overbought +6.7% No 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.0% - 0.8% 0.8% - 5.8% 5.8% and greater
 South America 4.0% 0.0% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Oversold 0.0% No 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% 5.6% 0.0% - 0.7% 0.7% - 4.9% 4.9% and greater

  BONDS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 TIPS Bond (TIP)  0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.3% 0.0%Oversold -5.3% No 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% 13.3% 0.0% - 1.7% 1.7% - 11.7% 11.7% and greater
 Treasury (IEI) 8.7% 13.6% 10.0% 33.3% 31.6% 28.6% Neutral -3.0% -- 8.0% 33.3% 0.0% 33.3% 0.0% - 4.2% 4.2% - 29.2% 29.2% and greater
 Corporate (GHYG) 33.3% 33.3% 25.0% 38.9% 17.6% 33.3% Neutral +15.7% -- 13.6% 41.2% 4.2% 41.2% 0.0% - 8.8% 8.8% - 36.6% 36.6% and greater
 Municipal (TFI) 8.7% 19.0% 0.0% 27.8% 5.9% 7.1% Neutral +1.3% -- 0.0% 28.0% 0.0% 28.1% 0.0% - 3.5% 3.5% - 24.6% 24.6% and greater

  METALS MARKET CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 SPDR Gold Shares (GLD)  4.0% 15.4% 9.5% 15.0% 5.0% 18.8%Neutral +13.8% -- 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 38.5% 0.0% - 4.8% 4.8% - 33.7% 33.7% and greater
 PowerShares DB
 Precious Metals (DBP)
 
 4.2% 18.2% 0.0% 5.6% 10.5% 12.5%Neutral +2.0% -- 0.0% 18.2% 0.0% 25.0% 0.0% - 3.1% 3.1% - 21.9% 21.9% and greater

  COMMODITIES MARKET CONFIDENCE
   1/12 1/19 1/26 2/02 2/09 2/23 Confidence %
Change
Supporting
Trend
26 week
Lo       Hi
52 week
Lo       Hi
Oversold (+) Neutral Overbought (-)
 CRB Index (GCC)  0.0% 9.1% 0.0% 11.1% 15.8% 6.2%Neutral -9.5% -- 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% 15.8% 0.0% - 2.0% 2.0% - 13.8% 13.8% and greater



(PLEASE NOTE) Our next Market Report will be released on March 5th, 2018.

WhisperNumber's Confidence Reports are for informational purposes only, and are not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security, or that any investment strategy discussed is suitable for all investors. There is a very high degree of risk involved in the purchase and sale of securities and WhisperNumber.com and all individuals affiliated with Market Sentiment LLC assume no responsibilities for the trading and investment results of subscribers. Past results are not indicative of future returns. WhisperNumber.com and Market Sentiment LLC employees make no representations or guarantees and are not licensed brokers, analysts, or registered investment advisors. Data presented is based on sentiment research and analysis. Reproduction or redistribution in any form is strictly prohibited.

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