October 5th, 2005
In our 10/5 report, sentiment indicated favorable (oversold) market conditions in eight commodities, and one overbought condition (lumber). The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (10/5 close to 10/18 close):
| Commodity |
10/5 Sentiment |
10/5 Close |
10/18 Close |
% Change |
| Corn (Dec) |
Oversold |
204.75 |
202.00 |
-1.3% |
| Cotton (Dec) |
Oversold |
53.91 |
55.37 |
+2.7% |
| Soybeans (Nov) |
Oversold |
563.5 |
584.5 |
+3.7% |
| Wheat (Dec) |
Oversold |
345.00 |
328.75 |
-4.7% |
| Coffee (Dec) |
Oversold |
93.7 |
104.1 |
+11.0% |
| Milk (Nov) |
Oversold |
13.47 |
13.81 |
+2.5% |
| OJ (Nov) |
Oversold |
103.5 |
108.9 |
+5.2% |
| Sugar (Mar) (high risk) |
Oversold |
11.44 |
11.69 |
+2.2% |
| Lumber (Nov) (high risk) |
Overbought |
289.3 |
283.5 |
-2.0% |
So as you can see we had another very decent nine day trading period ending up with 7 winners out of 9 extreme sentiment levels. The big winner was coffee and the big loser was wheat. Winners heavily outweighed losers. Once again you should have seen profits from the last report.
October 19th, 2005
In our report released 10/19, sentiment indicated seven oversold market conditions and one overbought condition. The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (based on 10/19 close to 11/01 close prices):
| Commodity |
10/19 Sentiment |
10/19 Close |
11/01 Close |
% Change |
| Cattle (live) (Dec) |
Oversold |
90.42 |
89.92 |
-0.5% |
| Soybeans (Nov) |
Oversold |
589.25 |
574.50 |
-2.5% |
| Cocoa (Dec) |
Oversold |
1392 |
1368 |
-1.7% |
| Milk (Dec) |
Oversold |
13.64 |
13.35 |
-2.1% |
| OJ (Dec) |
Oversold |
111.80 |
115.70 |
+3.5% |
| Copper (Nov) (high risk) |
Oversold |
1.860 |
1.896 |
+1.9% |
| Palladium (Nov) (high risk) |
Oversold |
210.5 |
223.4 |
+6.1% |
| Natural Gas (Dec) (high risk) |
Overbought |
13.86 |
11.86 |
+14.4% |
This was an interesting week as during the past nine day trading period we saw 4 winners out of the 8 extreme commodity sentiment levels. A fifty percent accuracy rate is not common (see last two reports). The gains did strongly outweigh the losses, and you would have been even more profitable had you taken what we considered to be an extended high risk play in the natural gas market.
November 2nd, 2005
In our report released 11/2, sentiment indicated seven oversold market conditions and two overbought conditions. The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (based on 11/2 close to 11/15 close prices):
| Commodity |
11/2 Sentiment |
11/2 Close |
11/15 Close |
% Change |
| Hogs (lean) (Dec) |
Oversold |
61.8 |
63.85 |
+3.3% |
| Soybean (Jan) |
Oversold |
585 |
592.25 |
+1.2% |
| Silver (Dec) |
Oversold |
7.551 |
7.787 |
+3.1% |
| Cocoa (Dec) |
Oversold |
1369 |
1337 |
-2.3% |
| Cotton (Dec) (high risk) |
Oversold |
52.29 |
50.28 |
-3.8% |
| Coffee (Dec) (high risk) |
Oversold |
101.05 |
96.5 |
-4.5% |
| Crude oil (Dec) (high risk) |
Oversold |
59.75 |
56.98 |
-4.6% |
| Orange Juice (Jan) (high risk) |
Overbought |
119.85 |
120.15 |
+0.2% |
| Natural gas (Dec) (high risk) |
Overbought |
11.604 |
11.563 |
-0.4% |
This was another interesting week as during the past nine day trading period we saw 3 winners out of 4 extreme commodity sentiment levels, but only 1 high risk winner out of 5 high risk sentiment readings. Excluding the high risk positions, the biggest winner was hogs with a 3.3% gain, and the biggest loser was cocoa with a loss of 2.3%. Sentiment turned out to be four trading days early on the OJ reading, as the market topped on 11/7-11/8 and has been falling ever since. The biggest disappointment had to be the coffee market as sentiment indicated gains, and for five tradings days all was well (showing profits of 7.4%). But that was given back and then some as the market collapsed. We're glad we included the high risk statement in the commentary for that market.
November 16th, 2005
In our report released 11/16, sentiment indicated four oversold market conditions and no overbought conditions. The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (based on 11/16 close to 12/6 close prices):
| Commodity |
11/16 Sentiment |
11/16 Close |
12/6 Close |
% Change |
| Corn (Mar) (no play) |
Oversold |
206.75 |
204.25 |
-1.2% |
| Soybean (Jan) |
Oversold |
576.75 |
564.00 |
-2.2% |
| Milk (Dec) (high risk) |
Oversold |
12.88 |
13.39 |
+4.0% |
| Crude oil (Jan) (high risk) |
Oversold |
58.45 |
59.94 |
+2.5% |
Our results from last reports sentiment data are rather lite. We only had four extreme sentiment situations. Of those four situations we advised against jumping into corn (waiting for confirmation), and believed the milk and crude oil markets were high risk only. So in fairness, we were 0 for 1 with the moderate losses in soybeans. The direction to avoid the corn market was correct, and the high risk takers saw decent gains in both the milk and oil markets. (Overall we were 3 for 4.)
December 7th, 2005
In our report released 12/7, sentiment indicated six oversold and three overbought market conditions. The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (based on 12/7 close to 12/20 close prices):
| Commodity |
12/7 Sentiment |
12/7 Close |
12/20 Close |
% Change |
| Cattle (Feb) (high risk) |
Oversold |
95.97 |
97.27 |
+1.4% |
| Corn (Mar) |
Oversold |
201.00 |
209.75 |
+4.4% |
| Cotton (Mar) (high risk) |
Oversold |
52.37 |
53.22 |
+1.6% |
| Lumber (Jan) (no play) |
Oversold |
322.80 |
336.70 |
+4.3% |
| Orange Juice (Jan) |
Oversold |
123.25 |
125.05 |
+1.5% |
| Crude oil (Jan) |
Oversold |
59.21 |
57.98 |
-2.1% |
| Natural Gas (Jan) (no play) |
Overbought |
13.70 |
14.08 |
-2.8% |
| Gold (Feb) (high risk) |
Overbought |
517.8 |
497.7 |
-3.9% |
| Platinum (Jan) |
Overbought |
998.3 |
961.0 |
-3.7% |
Seven winners out of nine extreme sentiment situations. Whether you went long or short, high risk or standard, (and avoided the energy markets) you made money. Breaking down the data, we had three higher risk positions (all returned gains), and two 'no play' positions (simply meaning we were not confident in the sentiment read to even issue a high risk statement.) One of the 'no play' positions (Lumber) saw gains. Take out the no play situations and our record for last report is 6 for 7. Take out the high risk and no play and sentiment was 3 for 4.
December 21st, 2005
In our last report of the 2005 year (released 12/21) sentiment indicated six oversold and two overbought market conditions. The following table provides a look at the market moves between reports (based on 12/21 close to 1/3 close prices):
| Commodity |
12/21 Sentiment |
12/21 Close |
1/3 Close |
% Change |
| Hogs (Feb) |
Oversold |
65.27 |
64.65 |
-1.0% |
| Corn (Mar) |
Oversold |
210.00 |
220.00 |
+4.8% |
| Soybean (Mar) |
Oversold |
619.0 |
628.5 |
+1.5% |
| Coffee (Mar) |
Oversold |
101.2 |
108.6 |
+7.3% |
| Sugar (Mar) |
Oversold |
14.10 |
14.18 |
+0.6% |
| Crude oil (Feb) |
Oversold |
58.56 |
63.14 |
+7.8% |
| Natural Gas (Feb) |
Overbought |
14.345 |
10.626 |
-25.9% |
| Palladium (Mar) |
Overbought |
250.2 |
270.2 |
+7.9% |
Six winners out of eight extreme sentiment situations.
Overall Score:
- Price Gains: 138.4%
- Price Declines: 45.4%
Q4 Final: +93%
