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S&P 500 Earnings Review

Summary: 81% of S&P 500 firms have met or beat analysts estimates through 1/24/06 (according to Reuters), while only 56% have met or beat investor expectations (according to WhisperNumber.com.)
S&P 500 companies actual EPS against analysts estimates
Jan. 20Jan. 24
Beat60%62%
Met19%18%
Missed 21%20%
Reported100131
S&P 500 companies actual EPS against investor expectations
Jan. 20Jan. 24
Beat44%46%
Met8%10%
Missed 48%44%
Reported4881

  • According to CNBC, on average, 80% of all companies meet or beat analysts estimates for any given quarter.

  • According to WhisperNumber.com, 56% of all companies have met or beat individual investor estimates so far this quarter.

  • The perception that companies react in a positive manner or are 'rewarded' for beating analysts consensus estimates should have the markets flying high - after all, 80% of the S&P500 earnings so far have met or surpassed analyst estimates.

  • In reality, the market is reacting to investor expectations that have only been met or exceeded 56% of the time. Investor expectations have been missed more than twice as much as the analyst estimates.

    It's not about the estimates, it's about the expectations.

    Related Product:
  • WhisperNumber's Risk Sentiment Report

    Related reading on the influence of whisper numbers:
    1/23/06: Will Sirius Satellite and Microsoft Top Earnings Expectations?
    The majority of public companies like Sirius and Microsoft will top analysts estimates, but the real question is will they top individual investor expectations? Results of a recent study conclude investor estimates for quarterly earnings (whisper numbers) have a greater influence on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates, and this earnings season is proving to be no different.

    1/17/06: 'Investor's Earnings Estimates Top Analysts in Returns, Impact on Stocks'
    Results of new study conclude investor estimates for quarterly earnings (whisper numbers) provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and have a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates.
  • About WhisperNumber Whisper Numbers Product Educate Help
    Since our start in 1998, we have collected earnings expectations (whisper numbers) from traders and investors that register with our site. Whether you call it 'wisdom of crowds', 'social media analytics', or 'crowd sourcing', this methodology has proven itself over the past twenty years as a more useful and valued earnings indicator. And traders know estimates don't move markets, expectations move markets.

    The firm was founded in 1998 by John Scherr, with the belief that the aggregated data collected from individual investors & traders would prove more timely, accurate, and useful than the analysts consensus estimates. The WhisperNumber expectation is regularly referenced in notable financial media sources such as CNBC, Fox Business, Forbes, Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, The Street, and Bloomberg, amongst others.
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