- The whisper number is $0.05, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate.
- Twitter has an 80% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 4 of the 5 earnings reports available since going public).
Twitter (TWTR) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, April 28th. The whisper number is $0.05, one cent ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. Twitter has an 80% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 4 of the 5 earnings reports available since going public). The first earnings report to fall short of the whisper number came in October 2014.
- Beat whisper: 4 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 1 qtrs
Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.
The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:
The strongest price movement of -2.0% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -7.9% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. The average post earnings price move is positive through five trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper, but turns negative from ten trading days through thirty trading days. Last quarter when the company topped the whisper number the average post earnings price move was positive through thirty trading days. Data is obviously limited.
The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:
The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in three of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 3.7% gain in one trading day. Last quarter the company reported earnings four cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 4.2% gain in twenty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average within thirty trading days) a 'positive' price reactor through five trading days when the company reports earnings, but turns negative through thirty trading days.
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Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing crowd-sourced estimates for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. WhisperNumber is completely open and free for anyone to contribute. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's 'price reaction' to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths. To start receiving trade alerts click here.