How Will CSX Traders React to Earnings?

October 13th, 2015

  • The whisper number is $0.53, two cents ahead of the analysts' estimate.

  • CSX has a 67% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 30 of the 45 earnings reports for which we have data).

  • The overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.
CSX Corp. (CSX) is expected to report earnings on Tuesday, October 13th. The whisper number is $0.53, two cents ahead of the analysts' estimate and showing some confidence from the WhisperNumber community. CSX has a 67% positive surprise history (having topped the whisper in 30 of the 45 earnings reports for which we have data).

Earnings history:

- Beat whisper: 30 qtrs
- Met whisper: 2 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 13 qtrs

Our primary focus is on post earnings price movement. Knowing how likely a stock's price will move following an earnings report can help you determine the best action to take (long or short). In other words, we analyze what happens when the company beats or misses the whisper number expectation.

The table below indicates the average post earnings price movement within a one and thirty trading day timeframe:



The strongest price movement of +2.3% comes within twenty trading days when the company reports earnings that beat the whisper number, and -5.1% within thirty trading days when the company reports earnings that miss the whisper number. While the strongest price moves are 'as expected', the overall average post earnings price move is 'positive' (beat the whisper number and see strength, miss and see strength) when the company reports earnings.

The table below indicates the most recent earnings reports and short-term price reaction:



The company has reported earnings ahead of the whisper number in two of the past four quarters with a whisper number. In the comparable quarter last year the company reported earnings four cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized an 8.1% gain in five trading days. Last quarter the company reported earnings three cents ahead of the whisper number. Following that report the stock realized a 15.3% loss in thirty trading days. Overall historical data indicates the company to be (on average) a 'positive' price reactor when the company reports earnings.

Enter your expectation and view more earnings information here.

Since 1998, WhisperNumber.com has been tracking and publishing crowd-sourced estimates for earnings. We call these earnings expectations whisper numbers. Our whisper numbers are gained from individual investors and traders just like you that have registered with our site. WhisperNumber is completely open and free for anyone to contribute. While the whisper number itself is an important part of our analysis, a company's 'price reaction' to beating or missing the whisper number expectation is the key. On average, companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report. Trading on whispers is a technical play on market psychology, rather than a bet on a company's fundamental strengths.

About WhisperNumber Whisper Numbers Product Educate Help
Since our start in 1998, we have collected earnings expectations (whisper numbers) from traders and investors that register with our site. Whether you call it 'wisdom of crowds', 'social media analytics', or 'crowd sourcing', this methodology has proven itself over the past twenty years as a more useful and valued earnings indicator. And traders know estimates don't move markets, expectations move markets.

The firm was founded in 1998 by John Scherr, with the belief that the aggregated data collected from individual investors & traders would prove more timely, accurate, and useful than the analysts consensus estimates. The WhisperNumber expectation is regularly referenced in notable financial media sources such as CNBC, Fox Business, Forbes, Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, The Street, and Bloomberg, amongst others.
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