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Google (GOOG) Earnings Preview
Whisper number at $6.74, fourteen cents higher than analysts estimate
"Google earnings have topped the whisper number by an average of thirty-one cents over the past four quarters. They've set the 'earnings bar' very high for themselves", according to WhisperNumber.com.

Google (GOOG); reports Apr. 15th, after market close
Whisper number: $6.74, fourteen cents higher than analysts

Highlights include:

* Average whisper number for past four quarters: $5.49
* Average actual earnings for past four quarters: $5.80
* Beat the whisper number in past 4 quarters by average of 31 cents

* Last quarter price move -2.6% in one trading day, -5.8% in five trading days following earnings

Specifics:
Google (GOOG) reports earnings April 15th after market close. Investors polled by WhisperNumber.com are expecting the company to report earnings of $6.74. This is fourteen cents higher than the analysts estimate.

Last quarter, the Google price reaction following their earnings report was -2.6% in one trading day, and -5.8% in five trading days. Google tends to have a limited negative price reaction through thirty trading days following earnings.

The majority of investors polled are expecting the company to provide a neutral outlook:

- Positive 37.5%
- Neutral 50.0%
- Negative 12.5%

Google earnings have historically given investors a positive surprise as they have exceeded investor expectations more times than missed:

- Beat whisper: 17 qtrs
- Met whisper: 0 qtrs
- Missed whisper: 5 qtrs

A company's 'reaction' to the whisper number expectation is the key - on average companies that exceed the whisper are 'rewarded', while companies that miss are 'punished' following an earnings report. WhisperNumber.com's Whisper Reactors service provides email alerts for those companies most likely to see price movement. Learn more here.

Companies that exceed both the whisper number (from WhisperNumber.com) and the analysts estimate see a 2.5 times greater positive post earnings price move than companies that only exceed the analysts estimate but miss the whisper.

The whisper number is derived from an average of investors' expectations regarding earnings for the most recent quarter.


Independent Academic Studies
Whisper Numbers Still Beating the Best Minds on Wall Street
The whisper number data published by WhisperNumber.com continues to provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and has a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates.

These declarations are supported by not one but two academic studies and are published in the Financial Decisions journal. The first study released in late 2005 was titled 'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide', and the second release was in mid-2007 titled "Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers" (both courtesy of San Jose State University College of Busines and Pepperdine University.) On a side note, there are no studies that show any significant impact or trading usefulness of analysts estimates.

To learn more about these studies and how WhisperNumber.com has used the results to develop their unique trading tool called 'Whisper Reactors', select from one of the following links.

  • 'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide'
        (published 2005, Financial Decisions Journal)

    Results of this study conclude investor estimates for quarterly earnings (whisper numbers) provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and have a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates. Click here to learn more.


  • 'Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers'
        (published 2007, Financial Decisions Journal)

    A post-earnings announcement drift associated with the market reaction to analyst forecasts errors remains a puzzle. This study suggests that whispers help to explain part of the puzzle. The study examines the market reaction to whispers and analysts in bull and bear markets, and finds that investors listen to whispers in the bull market and whispers help explain the post-announcement drift. Click here to learn more.


  • Reference Links:

  • Financial Decisions (journal) and Academic Studies:
    http://www.financialdecisionsonline.org

  • 'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide'
    http://www.financialdecisionsonline.org/current/Zaima.pdf

  • 'Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers?'
    http://www.financialdecisionsonline.org/current/ZaimaHarjoto.pdf

    Janis Zaima, Professor of Finance
    San Jose State University
    College of Business, Dept of Accounting & Finance
    408-924-3490


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    About WhisperNumber Whisper Numbers Product Educate Help
    Since our start in 1998, we have collected earnings expectations (whisper numbers) from traders and investors that register with our site. Whether you call it 'wisdom of crowds', 'social media analytics', or 'crowd sourcing', this methodology has proven itself over the past twenty years as a more useful and valued earnings indicator. And traders know estimates don't move markets, expectations move markets.

    The firm was founded in 1998 by John Scherr, with the belief that the aggregated data collected from individual investors & traders would prove more timely, accurate, and useful than the analysts consensus estimates. The WhisperNumber expectation is regularly referenced in notable financial media sources such as CNBC, Fox Business, Forbes, Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, The Street, and Bloomberg, amongst others.
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